Markov Model Simulation and Analysis for Future Expectation of Awarded Grades for IB Secondary Schools

Abstract

Markov Chains can be a valuable tool for analyzing expected awarded grades in the International Baccalaureate (IB) program for secondary schools. A core principle of the IB program is the emphasis on student progress throughout the two-year Diploma Programme (DP). Markov Chains excel at modeling transitions between states, which in this case, could represent different grade levels (e.g., predicted grade of 4 transitioning to a final awarded grade of 5). One of the complicated parts in the teaching system is how to conduct the evaluation process. The absence of an ideal evaluation standard is a problem in the teaching system at all [4, 5]. In this study, it is aimed to implement Markov mathematics in analyzing and modeling the IB Diploma Statistical Bulletin of May examination sessions, which is interesting and the most common to any IB student. Markov model will be realized using students’ grades which were contained the awarded grades for each of the six EE groups. The data are examination results from 427452 students in 2211 schools for nine years of the IB Diploma statistical bulletin of May examination sessions 2006 – 2014 [6].