CMIP6 projections of surface latent heat flux over the North Indian Ocean

Abstract

This study has been undertaken to predict the Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) in the future period (2020–2099) under different emission scenarios. For this 12 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6), Global Climate Models (GCMs) SLHF and ERA5 SLHF data have been used. It is observed that the SLHF is going to increase in the far future (2060–2099) under all emission scenarios probably due to higher warming. In the near future (2020–2059) particularly in the first half (2020–2039) a clear fall in the SLHF is noticed. It is also observed that the SLHF rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 (SSP5) is more than that under the SSP2 in the far future due to higher warming. Seasonal variation of the SLHF depicts that under SSP5 in the far future, the rise in the SLHF is the maximum in MAM. The rise of the SLHF in the far future can be attributed to the rise in the SST over the NIO but the reason for the fall of the SLHF in the first half of the near future is not clear.