Bridge performance degradation model based on the multi-variate bayesian dynamic linear method

Abstract

The degradation of bridge structural performance arises from the combined influence of various factors. Performance assessment and reliable prediction of bridge performance degradation through effective utilizing of detection information updates is a challenging problem. In this paper, the concept of performance indicators is redefined, employing to delineate bridge performance degradation. A bridge performance degradation model (the error ≤8%) is formulated, considering the multiple-variable Bayesian dynamic linear method (MBDLM) and revealing the coupling mechanisms among factors influencing bridge performance degradation. On this basis, the prediction performance of the model is quantitatively evaluated by three metrics: mean squared error, predictive mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error. A methodology is presented for the assessment, prediction, and maintenance reinforcement of in-service bridge structural performance degradation. This approach holds promise for future applications in safety assessments and the decision-making process for preventive maintenance of operational bridges.