European migration governance in the context of uncertainty

Abstract

Migration inherently embodies uncertainty and dynamism, eluding precise conceptualization, definition and measurement. Embedded within intricate migration driver environments and shaped by the diverse agency of actors involved—prospective migrants, intermediaries and policymakers—migration defies easy prediction and effective policy response. This inherent complexity within international migration flows poses immediate and long-term governance challenges. This paper delves into the impact of migration-related uncertainty on European migration governance. We scrutinize how uncertainty shapes migration policy responses and investigate the roles of key actors in assessing and communicating various facets of migration-related uncertainty. Employing illustrative cases—the Syrian refugee situation and environmentally induced migration—we uncover how uncertainty influences European migration governance and policymaking. Our study sheds light on the interplay between migration uncertainty and governance processes. The findings emphasize the need for nuanced policy approaches to navigate the complexities inherent in international migration processes.