Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China’s Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Abstract

Increased human activities in China’s coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources. Thus, conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones. System dynamic (SD)-future land use simulation (FLUS) model, a coupled simulation model, was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China’s coastal zone. This model encompasses five scenarios, namely, SSP1-RCP2.6 (A), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B), SSP3-RCP4.5 (C), SSP4-RCP4.5 (D), and SSP5-RCP8.5 (E). The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100. Subsequently, the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term (2035), medium term (2050), and long term (2100). Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China’s coastal zone from 2000–2020. Among these changes, the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease. By 2100, land use predictions exhibit high accuracy, and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios. In summary, the expansion of production, living, and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent. Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence, benefiting ecological land protection. Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands. Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production, while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage. Lastly, in Scenario E, the conflict between humans and land intensifies. This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development, utilization, and management of coastal areas in China. The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed, long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.