Fossil Fuel Demand Scenarios Forecast Under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target

Abstract

Restructuring energy supply and demand is one of the essential measures to realize the carbon emissions reduction target. To explore the impact of the restructuring of energy supply and demand on fossil fuel demand under the carbon emissions reduction target, takes China as an example, obtains a data set, and utilizes the elasticity analysis, incremental contribution method, weighted moving average method and scenario analysis to forecast the structure of energy demand and the consumption of fossil fuels. The study results show that the projected values of China’s total energy consumption demand in 2030 and 2035 will be 6300.19-6419.82 million tons of standard coal and 6955.92-7175.29 million tons of traditional coal, respectively. The shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in total energy consumption in 2030 will be 45.68-46.35%, 17.95-18.27%, and 10.71-10.89% respectively; by 2035 the energy structure will be further optimized, and the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in the total energy consumption will be 39.71-40.53%, 18.07-18.56% and 11.86-12.15%, respectively. Further forecasts of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil consumption in 2030 and 2035 are analyzed in this study.