A Hybrid Traffic Flow Forecasting and Risk-Averse Decision Strategy for Hydrogen-Based Integrated Traffic and Power Networks

Abstract

This article develops an operational framework for hydrogen microgrids integrated with traffic and power networks to optimize decision-making strategies. It tackles challenges in traffic flow prediction exacerbated by the rise of electric and hydrogen vehicles, which significantly affect power systems and hydrogen microgrids. We employ a risk-averse information gap decision theory to ensure secure operations under uncertain traffic conditions. Our framework utilizes a hybrid deep-learning forecasting method, combining a 1-D convolutional neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory to accurately predict traffic flow for origin–destination pairs in Edmonton, Canada. Enhanced by a Bayesian algorithm for hyperparameter tuning, this method improves prediction accuracy and operational efficiency. The framework also integrates operational strategies with urban travel plans to optimize charging for electric and hydrogen vehicles, thereby enhancing energy efficiency and supporting thermal demands. Validated in Edmonton's power and traffic networks, our framework enhances optimal charging, routing, and operation conditions, surpassing traditional methods to maintain secure operations during outages and improve the overall system robustness.