Bangladesh's pathways to net-zero transition: Reassessing country's solar PV potential with high-resolution GIS data

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology stands out as a cornerstone in Bangladesh's journey towards achieving net-zero emissions, representing a crucial building block in the country's sustainable energy transition plan. However, rapid land use change and the lack of suitable land for developing PV pose significant barriers to achieving Bangladesh's renewable energy targets and decarbonisation goals towards a net-zero transition. Our analysis of the predevelopment land use state of ten existing solar PV plants in Bangladesh reveals a substantial use of scarce agricultural land for their establishment. Therefore, to identify pathways for overcoming the challenges, this study reassesses Bangladesh's geographic and technical potential for solar PV using geospatial modelling by considering local contexts. Our investigation encompasses Rooftop PV (RPV), Ground-mounted PV (GPV), Floating PV (FPV), and Agrivoltaic (APV) systems. To identify suitable areas and quantify potential, we employ a comprehensive exclusion model and system-specific suitability models using the QGIS platform. Utilising the latest spatial datasets, including footprint data comprising approximately 20 million buildings, a 10 metre (m) resolution land cover map, and bathymetry data, our study provides a robust analysis. The results of our models present a holistic view of Bangladesh's solar PV potential, estimating about 30 GWp for RPV, 9 GWp for GPV, 5 GWp for FPV, and 81 GWp for APV applications. Given the escalating urbanisation in Bangladesh, our findings recommend diversifying solar PV deployment with a focus on RPV and other PV systems that offer dual use of land to facilitate a smoother energy transition towards sustainable development.