Pakistan's Coming Crisis

IF 4.3 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Journal of Democracy Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1353/jod.2024.a930428

Adeel Malik, Maya Tudor

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract:Pakistan's 2024 elections delivered a shocking surprise. Imran Khan's PTI won the largest number of seats amid heavy state repression. With this result, well-worn political patterns—whereby military favor virtually guaranteed a party's electoral success—were upended. This essay argues that Pakistan's 2024 election is not a "black swan" event but instead signals a coming crisis of governability that grows out of three structural changes: the rise of an aspirational middle class, the erosion of traditional authority patterns, and an intensifying economic and climate crisis. Consequently, a historic loss of military legitimacy is unlikely to abate in years ahead.

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巴基斯坦即将到来的危机

摘要：巴基斯坦 2024 年大选令人震惊。伊姆兰-汗领导的巴基斯坦人民党在国家的严厉镇压下赢得了最多的席位。这一结果颠覆了沿袭已久的政治模式--军方的支持几乎保证了政党选举的成功。本文认为，巴基斯坦 2024 年大选并非 "黑天鹅 "事件，而是即将到来的可治理性危机的信号，它源于三个结构性变化：有抱负的中产阶级的崛起、传统权威模式的削弱以及经济和气候危机的加剧。因此，军事合法性的历史性丧失在未来几年不太可能缓解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Democracy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

6.30

自引率

6.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1990, the Journal of Democracy has become an influential international forum for scholarly analysis and competing democratic viewpoints. Its articles have been cited in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and widely reprinted in many languages. Focusing exclusively on democracy, the Journal monitors and analyzes democratic regimes and movements in scores of countries around the world. Each issue features a unique blend of scholarly analysis, reports from democratic activists, updates on news and elections, and reviews of important recent books.