From complex to weaponized interdependence: Scenario-building in the Arctic

Abstract

The Ukraine war poses significant challenges to the Arctic and its mantra, “High North – Low Tension.” The pause of the Arctic Council, widespread sanctions against Russia and the expedited application of Finland and Sweden to NATO are changing the contours of the region. This article analyzes how the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacted Arctic affairs through the lens of the Sino-Russian relationship, utilizing Farrell and Newman’s (2019) concept of weaponized interdependence to outline future geopolitical scenarios. Findings indicate that Western incorporation of Beijing in Arctic dialogues is key to hedge economic, political and security dependencies to Russia.