Overconfidence, short selling, and corporate fraud: Evidence from China

Abstract

Using data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2020, this study employs a partial observable bivariate probit model and introduces fraud triangle theory to explain the mechanisms of overconfidence, short selling, and corporate fraud. Our findings show that overconfidence offers rationalization to investors and corporations, reduces fraud detection, and increases corporate incentives to commit fraud. Short selling promotes information transparency, increases fraud detection, and reduces the opportunities to commit fraud. Moreover, it moderates the relationship between overconfidence and corporate fraud. In addition, overconfidence and short selling affect different types of fraud (operational, executive, and information disclosure fraud). Furthermore, our results show heterogeneity among the ownership types. This study provides a theoretical basis for corporate fraud governance in China’s stock market.