Understanding the effects of socioeconomic factors on housing price appreciation using explainable AI

IF 4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103339

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Housing price appreciation is an important socioeconomic phenomenon that captures the complex socioeconomic dynamics of a city. Variation in housing price appreciation across neighborhoods reflects localized housing demand and supply-side factors. This study develops quality-adjusted, census tract-level housing price indices using a fine-grained big dataset containing a total of 140,289 housing transactions in the County of Los Angeles. We employ the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique, an explainable artificial intelligence framework, to examine the underlying demographic and socioeconomic factors that help in explaining the variance in tract-level housing price appreciation from 2012 through 2018 in the County of Los Angeles. The novelty of the methodology lies in the local interpretation of spatial patterns it provides from big data in the urban context and in assessing how the factors influencing housing price appreciation vary geographically. The modeling framework could help planners in making informed decisions about local geographic contexts that contribute to variability in housing price appreciation in cities.

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利用可解释人工智能了解社会经济因素对住房价格升值的影响

住房价格升值是一种重要的社会经济现象，它反映了一个城市复杂的社会经济动态。不同社区的住房价格升值差异反映了本地化的住房需求和供应方因素。本研究利用包含洛杉矶县 140,289 宗住房交易的精细化大数据集，编制了经过质量调整的人口普查区级住房价格指数。我们采用可解释的人工智能框架--SHAPLE Additive exPlanations（SHAP）技术，研究有助于解释 2012 年至 2018 年洛杉矶县各区级住房价格升值差异的潜在人口和社会经济因素。该方法的新颖之处在于，它从城市背景下的大数据中提供了对空间模式的本地解释，并评估了影响住房价格升值的因素在地域上的差异。该建模框架可帮助规划者就造成城市房价升值变化的当地地理环境做出明智决策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Geography GEOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

2.00%

发文量

134

期刊介绍： Applied Geography is a journal devoted to the publication of research which utilizes geographic approaches (human, physical, nature-society and GIScience) to resolve human problems that have a spatial dimension. These problems may be related to the assessment, management and allocation of the world physical and/or human resources. The underlying rationale of the journal is that only through a clear understanding of the relevant societal, physical, and coupled natural-humans systems can we resolve such problems. Papers are invited on any theme involving the application of geographical theory and methodology in the resolution of human problems.