The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

IF 7.6 1区医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138

Rachel Sze Jen Goh , Bryan Chong , Jayanth Jayabaskaran , Silingga Metta Jauhari , Siew Pang Chan , Martin Tze Wah Kueh , Kannan Shankar , Henry Li , Yip Han Chin , Gwyneth Kong , Vickram Vijay Anand , Keith Andrew Chan , Indah Sukmawati , Sue Anne Toh , Mark Muthiah , Jiong-Wei Wang , Gary Tse , Anurag Mehta , Alan Fong , Lohendran Baskaran , Nicholas W.S. Chew

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Abstract

Background

Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.

Findings

Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).

Interpretation

This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.

Funding

This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

查看原文本刊更多论文

2025 至 2050 年亚洲心血管疾病负担：对东亚、南亚、东南亚、中亚和高收入亚太地区的预测分析

背景鉴于亚洲心血管疾病（CVD）负担的快速增长，本研究预测了2025年至2050年亚洲的CVD负担和相关风险因素。研究结果在2025年至2050年期间，尽管年龄标准化心血管病死亡率（ASMR）下降了23.0%，但粗心血管病死亡率预计将上升91.2%。缺血性心脏病（每 100,000 人中有 115 人死亡）和中风（每 100,000 人中有 63 人死亡）仍将是导致 2050 年年龄标准化心血管死亡率上升的主要因素。中亚的急性呼吸系统综合症死亡率将最高（每 100,000 人中有 676 人死亡），是亚洲总体死亡率（每 100,000 人中有 186 人死亡）的三倍多，而高收入亚洲次区域在 2050 年的急性呼吸系统综合症死亡率将为每 100,000 人中有 22 人死亡。在整个亚洲，高收缩压将导致最高的 ASMR（每 100,000 人中有 105 人死亡），但中亚除外，在中亚，高空腹血浆葡萄糖将占主导地位（每 100,000 人中有 546 人死亡）。动脉粥样硬化性疾病将继续占据主导地位，而高收缩压将成为主要的风险因素。基金资助本研究得到了新加坡国立大学卫生学种子基金（NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03）、国家医学研究理事会研究培训奖学金（MH 095:003/008-303）、新加坡国立大学永禄林学院初级学术奖学金计划、新加坡国立大学卫生学临床科学家计划（NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS）和CADENCE国家临床转化项目（MOH-001277-01）。

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来源期刊

The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific Medicine-Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

2.80%

发文量

305

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, a gold open access journal, is an integral part of The Lancet's global initiative advocating for healthcare quality and access worldwide. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the Western Pacific region, contributing to enhanced health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research shedding light on clinical practice and health policy in the region. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces covering diverse regional health topics, such as infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, aging health, mental health, the health workforce and systems, and health policy.