A Long-Term and Global Energy Security Performance Evaluation Model Integrating Principle Component Analysis, Assurance Region Approach, and the Malmquist Technology

Abstract

A comprehensive literature review on energy security performance (ESP) highlighted a major gap in long-term, systematic global ESP studies. While some studies have assessed ESP changes in various countries over 20 years to identify progress or decline, their methods may not accurately reflect long-term ESP trends. Furthermore, the Malmquist productivity index (MPI), commonly used for calculating intertemporal performances and efficiencies, lacks flexibility in adjusting weights for inputs and outputs in assessments. Addressing this gap, this study proposes PCA/MPI-AR, an integrated approach merging principal component analysis (PCA), the assurance region (AR) technique, and MPI, to analyze ESP trends in 125 countries from 1997 to 2017. The results showed MPI-AR scores ranging from 0.3543 to 4.2800, indicating a general trend of ESP improvement over 21 years, with significant recent progress compared to earlier periods. Notably, 107 countries scored at least 1.0, and 3 scored below 0.5. A grouping analysis classified 12 countries as “highly efficient and improving,” with Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark, and Luxembourg as benchmarks. For the countries labeled “inefficient and regressing,” understanding and potentially emulating the strategies of these benchmarks is essential. Adopting this integrated PCA/MPI-AR approach incorporates flexible weighting capabilities and marks a significant advancement in the field of ESP evaluation. It is anticipated that our model will not only align more closely with the real-world conditions under which energy policies are formulated and implemented but also provide a more precise tool for evaluating and comparing the efficiency of different countries in enhancing their ESP. The research also suggests three potential policy directions for improvement in underperforming countries: renewable energy investment, energy efficiency enhancement, and energy taxation policy, as well as enhancing international cooperation through sharing best practices and technologies. This approach allows countries with significant improvements to support those with declining ESP scores, promoting a unified approach to global energy security. Urgent reforms and targeted interventions are needed to address specific deficiencies, potentially drawing on strategies from more successful nations.