Forecasting Australia’s international arrivals with climate indices

IF 3 Q2 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

International Journal of Tourism Cities Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI:10.1108/ijtc-01-2024-0004

Christopher A. Craig

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.

Design/methodology/approach

HCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).

Findings

Indices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.

Research limitations/implications

The primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.

Practical implications

Results demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.

Social implications

For tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.

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利用气候指数预测澳大利亚的国际游客人数

目的本研究旨在利用澳大利亚四个最繁忙城市的气候指数，调查气候对海洋和城市旅游业的影响：悉尼、墨尔本、布里斯班和珀斯。气候使用先前验证过的假日气候指数（HCI）--海滩（用于海洋旅游）--城市（用于城市旅游）；国际机场到达人数是关注的旅游行为。计算了仅针对机场到达人数的自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型和包含外生因素（即人机交互-海滩和城市）的机场到达人数模型。研究结果事实证明，每个城市的指数都很显著，其中人机交互-城市指数得分总体上比人机交互-海滩指数得分更有利。HCI-海滩提高了墨尔本（3.11%）、悉尼（15.77%）和珀斯（37.38%）的模型准确性；HCI-城市提高了布里斯班（37.73%）的准确性。社会意义对于游客而言，研究结果表明气象季节和城市的气候条件更有利或更不利。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是第一项研究气候指数对提高国际到达预测准确性的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Tourism Cities HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM-

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

11.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： A peer-reviewed journal, the International Journal of Tourism Cities provides an international forum for the critical study of urban tourism and tourism cities. The journal aims to be inter-disciplinary in its appreciation of tourism cities and tourism in urban areas, and welcomes original, theoretically-informed articles from those involved in the planning, management or marketing of tourism in city destination or places adjoining urban areas. Urban tourism and travel cover many disciplines and impinge on numerous aspects of daily life within cities. Moreover, they play a key role in domestic and international tourism in most countries, and cities often function as key travel gateways and tourism destinations. The International Journal of Tourism Cities contents include primary research articles, expert discussions on current urban tourism issues, and tourism city case studies. Articles are selected that are relevant to both academics and practitioners. The journal particularly encourages contributions on contemporary topics and issues in urban tourism including smart cities and tourism, environmental impact and sustainable tourism development in cities, citizen and stakeholder involvement in tourism, city destination governance, and the development of policies and standards for city tourism development. The International Journal of Tourism Cities has four distinct purposes: To encourage greater research and scholarship related to tourism in urban settings. To stimulate more interdisciplinary research on tourism in cities, particularly the integration of tourism and urban studies theories and principles. To generate more research studies on tourism at the edge of cities, where urban and rural areas converge. To create more literature on best practices in city tourism worldwide through in-depth analyses and the production of exemplary case studies.