Assessing the Risk of Windborne Dispersal of Culicoides Midges in Emerging Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Outbreaks in France

IF 3.5 2区农林科学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI:10.1155/2024/5571195

Amandine Bibard, Davide Martinetti, Albert Picado, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Thibaud Porphyre

{"title":"Assessing the Risk of Windborne Dispersal of Culicoides Midges in Emerging Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Outbreaks in France","authors":"Amandine Bibard, Davide Martinetti, Albert Picado, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Thibaud Porphyre","doi":"10.1155/2024/5571195","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n <p>The epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is a novel emerging threat for the European livestock sector. First detected in Sardinia and southern Spain at the end of 2022, this transboundary disease emerged in France in September 2023 despite restrictions on animal movement and enhanced surveillance protocols. Although virus spread is believed to be mediated by the dispersal of <i>Culicoides</i> vectors by the wind, prediction is difficult due to the large number of meteorological parameters that must be considered. Using simulations of atmospheric trajectories, we developed a model to investigate the long-distance dispersal risk zone of <i>Culicoides</i> in Europe, starting from different source zones. Our model predicted with good sensitivity the newly EHDV-infected areas in France over a period of 5 weeks after its first introduction in the country. Prospectively, we predicted that the midge dispersal zone of early 2024 could expand toward most of the western half of France and could sporadically reach new countries under favorable spring conditions. The wind dispersal risk maps provided are intended to support better preparedness and response to <i>Culicoides</i>-borne diseases.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":234,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"2024 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1155/2024/5571195","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/2024/5571195","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is a novel emerging threat for the European livestock sector. First detected in Sardinia and southern Spain at the end of 2022, this transboundary disease emerged in France in September 2023 despite restrictions on animal movement and enhanced surveillance protocols. Although virus spread is believed to be mediated by the dispersal of Culicoides vectors by the wind, prediction is difficult due to the large number of meteorological parameters that must be considered. Using simulations of atmospheric trajectories, we developed a model to investigate the long-distance dispersal risk zone of Culicoides in Europe, starting from different source zones. Our model predicted with good sensitivity the newly EHDV-infected areas in France over a period of 5 weeks after its first introduction in the country. Prospectively, we predicted that the midge dispersal zone of early 2024 could expand toward most of the western half of France and could sporadically reach new countries under favorable spring conditions. The wind dispersal risk maps provided are intended to support better preparedness and response to Culicoides-borne diseases.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

评估法国新发流行性出血病病毒疫情中蠓类随风传播的风险

流行性出血性疾病病毒（EHDV）是欧洲畜牧业面临的新威胁。这种跨境疾病于 2022 年底首次在撒丁岛和西班牙南部发现，2023 年 9 月在法国出现，尽管当时限制了动物移动并加强了监控规程。虽然病毒传播被认为是由风媒传播，但由于必须考虑大量气象参数，因此预测难度很大。通过模拟大气轨迹，我们建立了一个模型，从不同的源区出发，研究欧洲的库利科病毒远距离传播风险区。我们的模型很灵敏地预测了法国首次引入 EHDV 后 5 周内新感染 EHDV 的地区。展望未来，我们预测 2024 年初的蠓虫扩散区可能会扩展到法国西半部的大部分地区，并可能在有利的春季条件下零星到达新的国家。所提供的风力传播风险地图旨在帮助人们更好地防备和应对由 Culicoides 传播的疾病。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 农林科学-传染病学

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

9.30%

发文量

350

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions): Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread. Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope. Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies. Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies). Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.