Dissent is the word: New evidence on municipal turnout after amalgamation

Abstract

Evidence on the electoral participation at the municipal level usually points to a detrimental effect of an enlarged size (due to amalgamation) at the following municipal elections. Differently from most previous studies, our results show an overall positive effect of amalgamation on municipal turnout. In a quasi-experimental Difference-in-difference design following Callaway and Sant’Anna (2020) applied to the Italian case, we find that the cross- and within municipal heterogeneity emerges as a crucial lens for explaining such evidence. In particular, turnout after merger is affected by the level of dissent in the referenda held before the mergers: municipalities with higher dissent towards amalgamation show higher turnout at the following municipal election. This suggests possible electoral mobilization effects in controversial amalgamations. Moreover, final municipal size per se does not explain turnout after amalgamation and larger units do not necessarily vote less than smaller ones, thus rivaling the traditional claim that a larger size should depress municipal turnout.