Analysis of the impact of economic conditions on passenger aircraft orders and deliveries using the Fourier transform

Abstract

The growth of air passenger and cargo volumes is the result of innovations in aviation technology but is also significantly affected by the global economy. Various studies have been conducted to forecast the air transportation demand. In particular, for the management of passenger aircraft manufacturers and airlines, it is necessary to understand the trends in the number of orders and deliveries of passenger aircrafts. In this study, the Fourier transform was used to analyze the correlation between economic conditions and the number of orders and deliveries of passenger aircrafts. The results indicate that the fluctuations in the amplitudes of the numbers of orders and deliveries have been increasing. Furthermore, local peaks in the number of orders and deliveries tended to occur several years later than peaks in economic growth. However, the delay has shortened in recent years, the trend is assumed to synchronize with the growth of the global economy. At the same time, the introduction of next-generation passenger aircrafts does not necessarily result in immediate increases in orders and deliveries. Therefore, the impact of technological innovation is likely to be relatively small compared with that of economic conditions.