Luis Enrique Angeles-Gonzalez , Josymar Torrejón-Magallanes , Angel Escamilla-Aké , Luis Osorio-Olvera , Otilio Avendaño , Fernando Díaz , Carlos Rosas
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000–2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040–2050 and 2090–2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Thermal Biology publishes articles that advance our knowledge on the ways and mechanisms through which temperature affects man and animals. This includes studies of their responses to these effects and on the ecological consequences. Directly relevant to this theme are:
• The mechanisms of thermal limitation, heat and cold injury, and the resistance of organisms to extremes of temperature
• The mechanisms involved in acclimation, acclimatization and evolutionary adaptation to temperature
• Mechanisms underlying the patterns of hibernation, torpor, dormancy, aestivation and diapause
• Effects of temperature on reproduction and development, growth, ageing and life-span
• Studies on modelling heat transfer between organisms and their environment
• The contributions of temperature to effects of climate change on animal species and man
• Studies of conservation biology and physiology related to temperature
• Behavioural and physiological regulation of body temperature including its pathophysiology and fever
• Medical applications of hypo- and hyperthermia
Article types:
• Original articles
• Review articles