The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives

IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The public debate on the effectiveness of lockdown measures is far from being settled. We estimate the impact of not having implemented a strict lockdown in the Bergamo province, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite observing an infection rate in this area similar to the one observed in nearby municipalities where a strict lockdown was instead promptly implemented. We estimate the causal effect of this policy decision on daily excess mortality using the synthetic control method (SCM). We find that about two-thirds of the reported deaths could have been avoided had the Italian government declared a Red Zone in the Bergamo province. We also clarify that, in this context, SCM and difference-in-differences implicitly restrict effect heterogeneity. We provide a way to empirically assess the credibility of this assumption in our setting.

灰色地带:在大流行病爆发之初不实行严格封锁会导致多少人丧生
关于封锁措施有效性的公开辩论还远未结束。我们估算了在 COVID-19 大流行的第一波期间,贝尔加莫省未实施严格封锁措施的影响,尽管在该地区观察到的感染率与在附近迅速实施严格封锁措施的城市观察到的感染率相似。我们使用合成控制法(SCM)估算了这一政策决定对每日超额死亡率的因果效应。我们发现,如果意大利政府宣布贝加莫省为 "红区",大约三分之二的报告死亡人数是可以避免的。我们还澄清,在这种情况下,SCM 和差分法隐含地限制了效应异质性。我们提供了一种在我们的环境中对这一假设的可信度进行实证评估的方法。
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来源期刊
Labour Economics
Labour Economics ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
142
期刊介绍: Labour Economics is devoted to publishing research in the field of labour economics both on the microeconomic and on the macroeconomic level, in a balanced mix of theory, empirical testing and policy applications. It gives due recognition to analysis and explanation of institutional arrangements of national labour markets and the impact of these institutions on labour market outcomes.
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