Mathematical Modelling of Gonorrhoea Spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022

Abstract

The number of confirmed positive tests of various sexually transmitted infections has grown recently in the United Kingdom. The objective of this study is to propose a deterministic compartmental model to investigate gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022. The differential equation based model includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, spontaneous recovery and treatment compartments. After fitting our model to the monthly number of new positive tests, we found that the basic reproduction number is approximately 1.0030. In addition, we derive the endemic equilibrium of the model, which exists if and only if R0>1. The sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic values of the compartments of treated individuals indicate that infection spreading time can have a significant impact on gonorrhoea spread.