Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator

Abstract

The paper develops the concept of “Economic Pathways” (EPs), which characterizes theory-based scenarios for an economy that strives for decarbonization by the middle of the century. The theoretical framework derives closed-form analytical solutions for consumption, innovation, emissions, and population. The EPs differ in the stringency of assumed policies and associated income and emission development. Unlike the well-known “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, they allow the inclusion of important causalities between the economy and the environment and thereby considerably narrow down the scope of likely future developments. The quantitative part serves to illustrate the long-term consequences of climate policy. I show that deep decarbonization only moderately delays economic development, but requires increasing escalation of the carbon price. The paper argues that the adoption of more stringent climate policies becomes more likely as the phase-out of fossil fuels increases. The “Green Road” is not only feasible but also attractive and realistic.