Public debt, investment and economic growth dynamics: Do geographical proximity and spatial spillover effects matter?

Abstract

This study employed an innovative spatial econometrics approach to analyze the spillover effects of foreign public debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth dynamics of Eastern Africa. Specifically, we utilize Spatial Durbin Fixed Effect (SDM-FE) Model, drawing on balanced panel data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 1992–2019. This study contributes by utilizing a spatial weight matrix and investigating its interactions with economic growth and various other macro-regional factors, thereby unveiling the presence of spatial spillover effects and the impact of geographical proximity of countries within the region. Our results indicate that foreign public debt, FDI, gross fixed capital formation, human capital development, inflation, and government expenditure, significantly have spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth. Additionally, the results underscore the presence of regional growth divergence and provide further evidence of substantial regional spatial dependence in economic growth. Based on these outcomes, it is evident that foreign public debt has a negative impact on economic growth, which is consistent with the debt overhang theory and the crowding-out hypothesis. Moreover, the foreign public debt and regional growth policies should be devised considering the geographical interconnectedness between countries in the region, as the research output has revealed the impacts of growth and debt spillovers among the countries studied. Policies that prioritize these objectives would promote long-term regional economic growth and prevent the effects of excessive foreign public debt by creating a favorable macroeconomic climate.