Acceleration of diversification of foreign trade relations of Central-Eastern European countries in crisis periods and the role of Russia in this process

A. Golubkin, Yu.K. Knyazev
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Abstract

Aim. To show the acceleration of diversification of trade relations diversification of Central­Eastern European (CEE) countries in crisis periods (2009-2012, 2017-2023) and to determine the importance of Russia in this process.Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of trade of CEE countries with some regions of the world, including China and Russia.Methods. The authors applied such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.Results. The results of the analysis show that as the foreign trade potential of the European Union (EU) closed market is exhausted, CEE countries are forced to diversify their trade rela­tions, expanding them towards other regions of the world.Conclusions. The diversification process intensifies in times of crisis, when conditions for regular cooperation within the EU deteriorate due to the economic downturn. This can be traced back to the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and is happening now (2022-2024), in the context of geopolitical tensions. Along with the decreasing share of the EU in the CEE countries' trade turnover, their trade interaction with other regions, mainly with Asia, is ex­panding. Among the countries targeted by the CEE diversification vector, one can single out China with the largest volume of mutual trade and Russia, whose importance has sharply de­clined in recent years due to the harsh sanctions imposed against it.
危机时期中东欧国家对外贸易关系多样化的加速以及俄罗斯在这一进程中的作用
目的显示中东欧国家在危机时期(2009-2012 年,2017-2023 年)贸易关系多样化的加速度,并确定俄罗斯在这一过程中的重要性。分析中东欧国家与包括中国和俄罗斯在内的世界部分地区贸易的主要指标动态。作者采用了统计分析、概括、描述和图形建模等研究方法。分析结果表明,随着欧盟(EU)封闭市场外贸潜力的耗尽,中欧和东欧国家被迫实现贸易关系多样化,将贸易关系扩展到世界其他地区。危机时期,欧盟内部的常规合作条件因经济衰退而恶化,多样化进程随之加强。这可以追溯到 2008-2009 年的全球金融和经济危机,现在(2022-2024 年)在地缘政治紧张局势的背景下正在发生。随着欧盟在中东欧国家贸易额中所占份额的下降,它们与其他地区(主要是亚洲)的贸易互动也在扩大。在中欧和东欧多样化矢量所针对的国家中,中国和俄罗斯的相互贸易额最大,而俄罗斯由于受到严厉制裁,其重要性近年来急剧下降。
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