The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI:10.1111/obes.12626

Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Emanuel Gasteiger, Giovanni Melina

{"title":"The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions","authors":"Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Emanuel Gasteiger, Giovanni Melina","doi":"10.1111/obes.12626","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from <span></span><math>\n <semantics>\n <mrow>\n <mo>−</mo>\n </mrow>\n <annotation>$$ - $$</annotation>\n </semantics></math>0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"86 6","pages":"1342-1372"},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/obes.12626","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from $-$ 0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.

查看原文本刊更多论文

需求和供给驱动的经济衰退中的欧元区政府支出乘数

我们估算了欧元区在需求和供给驱动型衰退中的政府支出乘数。适度需求驱动型衰退中的乘数是适度供给驱动型衰退中的两到三倍，乘数之间的差异非零的概率非常高。一般而言，乘数与通货膨胀率偏离趋势的程度成反比，这意味着需求驱动的衰退越严重，乘数就越高。乘数范围从供应驱动型衰退的 0.5 到需求驱动型衰退的约 2。计量经济学方法利用的是一个去除了预期的因子增强交互向量自回归模型（FAIPVAR-X）。该模型通过考虑通胀偏离趋势的整体分布，捕捉商业周期的时变状态，包括由需求和供给驱动的强衰退和中度衰退。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.