Future patterns in burden and incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in the United States, 2001-2035.

IF 9.9 1区医学 Q1 ONCOLOGY

JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1093/jnci/djae127

Ashvita Garg, Haluk Damgacioglu, Keith Sigel, Alan G Nyitray, Gary M Clifford, Thomas Curran, Gweneth Lazenby, Eric G Meissner, Katherine Sterba, Kalyani Sonawane, Ashish A Deshmukh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.

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2001-2035 年美国肛门鳞状细胞癌负担和发病率的未来模式。

在美国，肛门鳞状细胞癌（SCCA）的发病率一直在上升，尤其是在老年人（≥65 岁）中。我们采用年龄-时期-队列模型估算了这种上升对未来负担（至 2035 年）的影响。预计 SCCA 负担（病例/年）将上升，2031-2035 年男性将达到 2700 例，女性将达到 7000 例（2016-2020 年男性和女性的负担分别为 2150 例和 4600 例），其中大多数病例的年龄≥65 岁（2031-2035 年男性为 61%，女性为 70%；2016-2020 年分别为 40% 和 46%）。预计 65-74 岁、75-84 岁和≥85 岁的老年男性（2031-2035 年分别为 5.0、4.9 和 4.3，而 2016-2020 年分别为 3.7、3.8 和 3.4）和女性（2031-2035 年分别为 11.2、12.6 和 8.0，而 2016-2020 年分别为 8.2、6.8 和 5.2）的 SCCA 发病率（每 10 万人）将有所上升。预计老年人 SCCA 负担的增加令人担忧，这凸显了改善早期检测和临床护理的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

17.00

自引率

2.90%

发文量

203

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of the National Cancer Institute is a reputable publication that undergoes a peer-review process. It is available in both print (ISSN: 0027-8874) and online (ISSN: 1460-2105) formats, with 12 issues released annually. The journal's primary aim is to disseminate innovative and important discoveries in the field of cancer research, with specific emphasis on clinical, epidemiologic, behavioral, and health outcomes studies. Authors are encouraged to submit reviews, minireviews, and commentaries. The journal ensures that submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous and expedited review to publish scientifically and medically significant findings in a timely manner.