Identifying counter-urbanisation using Facebook's user count data

IF 6.5 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
Qianwen Duan , Jessica Steele , Zhifeng Cheng , Eimear Cleary , Nick Ruktanonchai , Hal Voepel , Tim O'Riordan , Andrew J. Tatem , Alessandro Sorichetta , Shengjie Lai , Felix Eigenbrod
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Identifying the growing widespread phenomenon of counter-urbanisation, where people relocate from urban centres to rural areas, is essential for understanding the social and ecological consequences of the associated changes. However, its nuanced dynamics and complex characteristics pose challenges for quantitative analysis. Here, we used near real-time Facebook user count data for Belgium and Thailand, with missing data imputed, and applied the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) model to capture subtle urban and rural population dynamics and assess counter-urbanisation. We identified counter-urbanisation in both Belgium and Thailand, evidenced by increases of 1.80% and 2.14% in rural residents (night-time user counts) and decreases of 3.08% and 5.04% in urban centre night-time user counts from March 2020 to May 2022, respectively. However, the counter-urbanisation in Thailand appears to be transitory, with rural users beginning to decline during both day and night as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. By contrast, in Belgium, at the country level, there is as yet no evidence of a return to urban residences, though daytime numbers in rural areas are decreasing and in urban centres are increasing, suggesting an increase in commuting post-pandemic. These variation characteristics observed both between Belgium and Thailand and between day and night, extend the current understanding of counter-urbanisation. The use of novel social media data provides an effective quantitative perspective to comprehend counter-urbanisation in different settings.

利用 Facebook 的用户数数据识别逆城市化现象
逆城市化是指人们从城市中心迁移到农村地区,识别这种日益普遍的现象对于了解相关变化的社会和生态后果至关重要。然而,其细微的动态变化和复杂的特征给定量分析带来了挑战。在此,我们使用了比利时和泰国近乎实时的 Facebook 用户计数数据(缺失数据已估算),并应用黄土季节-趋势分解(STL)模型来捕捉微妙的城市和农村人口动态并评估逆城市化。我们发现比利时和泰国都出现了逆城市化现象,表现为从 2020 年 3 月到 2022 年 5 月,农村居民(夜间用户数量)分别增加了 1.80% 和 2.14%,城市中心夜间用户数量分别减少了 3.08% 和 5.04%。然而,泰国的逆城市化似乎是暂时的,随着 COVID-19 限制的取消,农村用户在白天和夜间都开始下降。相比之下,在比利时,虽然农村地区的日间用户数量在减少,而城市中心的日间用户数量却在增加,这表明大流行后的通勤人数在增加,但从国家层面来看,目前还没有证据表明这种现象在向城市居民回归。在比利时和泰国之间以及白天和黑夜之间观察到的这些变化特征,扩展了目前对逆城市化的理解。新社交媒体数据的使用为理解不同环境下的逆城市化提供了有效的定量视角。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.50
自引率
10.30%
发文量
151
审稿时长
38 days
期刊介绍: Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.
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