Segmented user demand forecasting for libraries in the 15-minute city considering users' preferences and spatial patterns

Abstract

While the conditions for using libraries in South Korea are improving in terms of the concept of a 15-min city, such as the expansion of public library functions and an increase in the number of libraries, the number of users per library is declining. This phenomenon represents the necessity of advancing the understanding of library use behavior from the policy aspects of facility planning, maintenance, and management. Hence, this study analyzes the effect of library services and distance on choices regarding library use and predicted changes in library use behavior through a choice experiment and a discrete choice model. The results reveal that library services, distance, and library-use status influenced library users' and non-users' decisions regarding library use. Through predictions of library use behavior, administrative districts that provide relatively low utility are identified, and the number of library users is estimated. Considering the impact of the interaction between library services and spatial patterns on potential users, it is possible to predict different library use patterns that can help make policy decisions regarding facility planning and management.