Global, regional, and national cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts in 1990–2044: A cross-sectional and age-period-cohort forecast study

Abstract

Background

Understanding the current status and future trends of cancer burdens by systems provides important information for specialists, policymakers, and specific risk populations.

Methods

The aim of this study was to compare the current and future cancer burdens of the gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory tracts in terms of their magnitude and distribution. Data from a total of eight cancers of the digestive and respiratory tracts in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were collected. The age-standardized incidence/death rates (ASIR/ASDRs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were analyzed. Future trends were predicted with Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and NORDPRED models.

Results

In 2019, there was a significant increase in DALY for both digestive and respiratory tract cancers compared to 1990. Meanwhile, ASIR increased slightly and ASDR decreased notably. In 2019, the global cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts were 38568363.53 and 66912328.72 in DALY, 34.28 and 55.32 in ASIR, and 656.82 and 808.22 in ASDR per 100,000 population with changes of +54.63% and +43.93%, +2.92% and +5.65%, and −17.39% and −26.83% compared to those in 1990, respectively. Significant cross-regional differences in the cancer burdens were observed among the regions. Compared to four representative chronic diseases, the burden of cancers showed less remission and greater global inequalities. The burdens of both digestive and respiratory tract cancers were higher in males than in females in terms of the ASIR, ASDR, and DALY. The incidence and mortality rates of respiratory tract cancers were up to 3–4 times higher in males than in females, whereas the difference between male and female rates of digestive tract cancers was relatively smaller. The main risk factor associated with all kinds of digestive and respiratory tract cancers is tobacco, leading to 18.5 in ASDR and 3.38×10⁷ in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 8.29 in ASDR and 1.60×10⁷ in DALY for digestive tract cancers, in 2019. Additionally, alcohol use contributes to most digestive and respiratory tract cancers (1.23/1.03 in ASDR and 1.60×10⁶/2.57×10⁶ in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 4.19/3.82 in ASDR and 4.49×10⁶/8.06×10⁶ in DALY for digestive tract cancers), except for stomach cancer and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer. The cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts are likely to decrease substantially between 2020 and 2044. For most metrics, except for the ASIR and male-to-female ratios of ASDR and ASDALY in digestive tract cancers, the worldwide variances of burden metrics have been decreasing in the past decades and will possibly maintain stable trends in the future.

Conclusions

The epidemiology of respiratory and GI tract cancers has common features and individual characteristics that are reflected in geography, age characteristics, and risk factors. Current epidemiological status, future trends, and the globalization of these disease burdens are important factors for making scientific planning of resources to minimize the cancer burden metrics and their cross-regional inequalities.