News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI:10.1002/jae.3070

Sangyup Choi, Jaehun Jeong, Dohyeon Park, Donghoon Yoo

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by news shocks about the future. We expand upon their research by incorporating the Great Recession and ZLB episodes, during which animal spirits have a greater potential to influence economic activity. Nevertheless, we confirm the main finding of Barsky and Sims (2012) that this relationship is predominantly driven by news about the future rather than animal spirits.

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新闻还是动物精神？消费者信心与经济活动：再现

摘要Barsky 和 Sims（2012 年，AER）通过间接推论证明，信心创新可被视为中期经济增长的噪声信号。他们强调，信心与消费和产出等后续活动之间的联系主要是由有关未来的新闻冲击所驱动的。在他们的研究基础上，我们纳入了大衰退和 ZLB 事件，在这两个事件中，动物精神更有可能影响经济活动。然而，我们证实了 Barsky 和 Sims（2012 年）的主要发现，即这种关系主要是由关于未来的新闻而非动物精神驱动的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.