The Logic of Counterfactuals and the Epistemology of Causal Inference

Abstract

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized a theory of causal inference, which deserves more attention from philosophers. To that end, I develop a dialectic that extends the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle called Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I first play the good cop for CEM, and give a new argument for it: a Quine-Putnam indispensability argument based on the Nobel-Prize winning theory. But then I switch sides and play the bad cop: I undermine that argument with a new theory of causal inference that preserves the success of the original theory but dispenses with CEM.