Comparative evaluation of meteorological inputs for improved storm surge modeling: A case study of tropical Cyclone Vayu

Abstract

The selection of meteorological inputs in storm surge is crucial, with wind and pressure fields playing a significant role in energy transfer and the study area's bathymetry. While using observed track information for wind and pressure drop has been the standard approach for the past decade, recent studies have highlighted the need for atmospheric inputs from models like the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) for storm surge forecast. This study aims to compare the performance of a DELFT-3D FM storm surge model forced with inputs from IMD (India Meteorological Department) observed the best track and pressure drop (EXP-1) and wind and pressure fields from WRF (EXP-2) for Tropical Cyclone Vayu, which occurred in the southern Arabian Sea basin in June 2019. The study compares the simulated storm water levels and highlights the benefits of using time and space-varying wind and pressure input for improved surge representation. Results show that the WRF-DELFT setup outperforms the IMD-DELFT setup, particularly for tide gauge locations close to the storm eye. The simulated storm surge captures the intensified stage of Vayu and provides a more realistic representation than the model forced with IMD track data. However, biases and limitations, such as inadequate representation of land surface parameterization, are identified. The study suggests further exploring wave-induced effects on total water level and multiple cyclone scenarios to enhance wind speed and track displacement prediction accuracy and improved land-sea parameterization can help address these limitations.