Types of communications technology and civil conflict

Abstract

Why do different types of information and communications technologies (ICTs) differentially relate to civil conflict incidence? We distinguish one-way (radio; television) from two-way ICTs (phone; internet; social media), contrasting technologies enabling one-directional broadcasting against technologies facilitating dialogue. The former predominantly allow rulers to misinform rebels about attainable rents, which, according to our theoretical framework, consequentially reduces conflict potential. However, two-way ICTs primarily help rebels overcome communication and coordination problems, which ultimately increases conflict potential. Strong political institutions are predicted to weaken these relationships but should remain unable to overturn their signs. Empirically, we observe consistent patterns in $\left(i\right)$ country-level panel analyses of civil conflict and $\left(ii\right)$ individual-level survey responses eliciting anti-government attitudes. Radio and television availability and usage consistently emerge as negative predictors of conflict incidence and anti-government attitudes — but less so under strong political institutions. Opposite results materialize for mobile phone, internet, and social media availability and usage.