Geospatial patterns of excess mortality in Belgium: Insights from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Objectives:

Belgium experienced multiple COVID-19 waves that hit various groups in the population, which changed the mortality pattern compared to periods before the pandemic. In this study, we investigated the geographical excess mortality trend in Belgium during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods:

We retrieved the number of deaths and population data in 2020 based on gender, age, and municipality of residence, and we made a comparison with the mortality data in 2017–2019 using a spatially discrete model.

Results:

Excess mortality was significantly associated with age, gender, and COVID-19 incidence, with larger effects in the second half of 2020. Most municipalities had higher risks of mortality with a number of exceptions in the northeastern part of Belgium. Some discrepancies in excess mortality were observed between the north and south regions.

Conclusions:

This study offers useful insight into excess mortality and will aid local and regional authorities in monitoring mortality trends.