A composite indicator-based method to assess the energy security of Nepal and prospects of cross-border electricity sharing in South Asia

IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Utsav Bhattarai , Tek Maraseni , Laxmi Devkota , Armando Apan
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Abstract

Scholars recommend country (or region) specific energy security indices capable of adequately considering local specificities in the absence of a ‘universal’ index. Such an index is not available for Nepal. Hence, this study is the first to develop the Energy Security Composite Index of Nepal (ESCOIN), applying a comprehensive indicator-based approach to quantify energy security (ES) of Nepal. We build upon the notion that a country is able to trade energy when it is energy secure. We quantify Nepal's energy security and qualitatively assess the prospect for regional power trade in South Asia. A long list of 77 indicators is compiled from an extensive review of international literature. Based on the context, applicability to Nepal, data availability and conditions of multi-collinearity, this list of indicators is narrowed down to 21. Principal Component Analysis is then applied to evaluate the importance of the components for ESCOIN. Our results show that Nepal has consistently held a boundary position between “moderate” to “high” classes of ES in the last decade. We identify key reasons for this. First, the country's domestic sector is over-reliant on traditional fuels (dry-dung, firewood and agricultural residues). Second, Nepal faces a problem of suppressed demand in the absence of energy-intensive development activities in all productive sectors of the economy. Third, the growth in the energy demand is met only marginally by domestic hydropower and other renewables, and largely by increasing imports. Hence, we surmise a ‘pseudo energy secure’ state for Nepal. Although efforts are underway, electricity trade with China, Bangladesh and other South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries is economically difficult and technically challenging. Hence, cross-border electricity trading, particularly with India, can be seen as an opportunity for Nepal provided considerable infrastructural development occurs, institutional capacity is strengthened, and genuine political commitment and trust are sustained. Moreover, Nepal should focus on achieving self-sufficiency in energy through domestic hydropower and renewable sources and aim to stabilize energy consumption rather than being overly ambitious of exports, at least in the near future.

基于综合指标的方法评估尼泊尔的能源安全和南亚跨境电力共享的前景
学者们建议,在缺乏 "通用 "指数的情况下,应采用能够充分考虑当地具体情况的国家(或地区)能源安全指数。尼泊尔还没有这样的指数。因此,本研究首次开发了尼泊尔能源安全综合指数(ESCOIN),采用基于指标的综合方法来量化尼泊尔的能源安全(ES)。我们所依据的概念是:当一个国家能源安全时,它就能够进行能源贸易。我们对尼泊尔的能源安全进行量化,并对南亚地区电力贸易的前景进行定性评估。通过广泛查阅国际文献,我们编制了一份长达 77 项指标的清单。根据背景、对尼泊尔的适用性、数据可用性和多重共线性条件,我们将指标清单缩小到 21 个。然后采用主成分分析法来评估这些成分对 ESCOIN 的重要性。我们的结果表明,在过去十年中,尼泊尔的环境质量一直处于 "中等 "到 "高等 "之间。我们找出了其中的主要原因。首先,该国的国内部门过度依赖传统燃料(干粪、木柴和农业残留物)。其次,由于尼泊尔所有经济生产部门都没有开展能源密集型发展活动,尼泊尔面临着需求被抑制的问题。第三,国内水力发电和其他可再生能源只能满足少量的能源需求增长,而大部分能源需求则要依靠不断增加的进口。因此,我们推测尼泊尔将处于 "伪能源安全 "状态。尽管尼泊尔正在努力与中国、孟加拉国和其他南亚区域合作联盟(SAARC)国家开展电力贸易,但这在经济上是困难的,在技术上也是具有挑战性的。因此,跨境电力贸易,尤其是与印度的跨境电力贸易,可以被视为尼泊尔的一个机遇,但前提是必须大力发展基础设施,加强机构能力,并保持真正的政治承诺和信任。此外,尼泊尔应将重点放在通过国内水电和可再生能源实现能源自给自足上,并以稳定能源消耗为目标,而不是过分追求出口,至少在不久的将来是这样。
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来源期刊
Environmental Development
Environmental Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
1.90%
发文量
62
审稿时长
74 days
期刊介绍: Environmental Development provides a future oriented, pro-active, authoritative source of information and learning for researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, and managers, and bridges the gap between fundamental research and the application in management and policy practices. It stimulates the exchange and coupling of traditional scientific knowledge on the environment, with the experiential knowledge among decision makers and other stakeholders and also connects natural sciences and social and behavioral sciences. Environmental Development includes and promotes scientific work from the non-western world, and also strengthens the collaboration between the developed and developing world. Further it links environmental research to broader issues of economic and social-cultural developments, and is intended to shorten the delays between research and publication, while ensuring thorough peer review. Environmental Development also creates a forum for transnational communication, discussion and global action. Environmental Development is open to a broad range of disciplines and authors. The journal welcomes, in particular, contributions from a younger generation of researchers, and papers expanding the frontiers of environmental sciences, pointing at new directions and innovative answers. All submissions to Environmental Development are reviewed using the general criteria of quality, originality, precision, importance of topic and insights, clarity of exposition, which are in keeping with the journal''s aims and scope.
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