Validación externa de la escala Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiology Treatment (EFFECT) de predicción de mortalidad en pacientes que ingresan por insuficiencia cardiaca agudizada en Álava, España

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
S. Goya-Lirio , M. Hernando-Llorens , S. García de Garayo-Díaz , J. Regalado-de Los Cobos
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

To validate the EFFECT (Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment) scales, which predict mortality at 1 month and 1 year after admission, in a defined cohort of patients admitted to the Araba University Hospital (HUA) with a diagnosis of acutely decompensated heart failure.

Method

External validation study of a predictive model, in a retrospective cohort of patients admitted between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021.

Results

A total of 550 patients were included. The two scales demonstrated good overall discriminatory ability in our series, with an area under ROC (0.755 y 0.756) and values in Brier score (0.094 y 0.194) similar to the original series. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots and was also adequate. All this despite the fact that significant differences were observed in many clinical characteristics between our series and the original one.

Conclusions

The EFFECT scales showed good predictive ability and transportability. The one-month prediction scale was also useful for predicting mortality at one year. For both time periods, mortality was similar in the groups established in the original as low and very low risk.

西班牙阿拉瓦地区用于预测急性心力衰竭住院患者死亡率的有效心脏病治疗强化反馈量表(EFFECT)的外部验证。
方法 对2020年10月1日至2021年9月30日期间入院的患者进行回顾性队列研究,对预测模型进行外部验证。结果 共纳入550名患者。在我们的系列研究中,这两个量表表现出良好的整体判别能力,ROC下面积(0.755 y 0.756)和Brier评分值(0.094 y 0.194)与原始系列相似。使用 Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验和校准图对校准进行了评估,结果也是适当的。结论EFFECT量表显示出良好的预测能力和可移植性。结论EFFECT量表显示出良好的预测能力和可移植性,一个月的预测量表对预测一年的死亡率也很有用。在这两个时间段内,在最初确定的低风险组和极低风险组中,死亡率相似。
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来源期刊
Revista clinica espanola
Revista clinica espanola 医学-医学:内科
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
6.90%
发文量
73
审稿时长
28 days
期刊介绍: Revista Clínica Española published its first issue in 1940 and is the body of expression of the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine (SEMI). The journal fully endorses the goals of updating knowledge and facilitating the acquisition of key developments in internal medicine applied to clinical practice. Revista Clínica Española is subject to a thorough double blind review of the received articles written in Spanish or English. Nine issues are published each year, including mostly originals, reviews and consensus documents.
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