Assessment of Reliability of Power Systems Under Adverse Weather Condition Using Markov System Dynamic Method

Abstract

We aim to extend the Markov System Dynamic method (MSD) to evaluate the reliability of repairable systems in two-state weather (2SW) models. Increasing the number of components in real practices has limited the use of the Markov method, because of increasing the number of equations and the complexity of the problem. There is no such restriction in the MSD method. Thus, it can be applied to complex systems. Theoretically, we indicate that the 2SW model is a type of linear dynamical system. Therefore, we can use MSD to solve it. Through an example, the validity of the proposed method is confirmed in comparison to the Markov method for the 2SW model. Since the MSD method does not use equations, it can be a preferred alternative for calculating the reliability of 2SW models. Accordingly, we apply the MSD method for assessing the reliability of a four-component system.