Debating the Populist Pariah: Changing Party Dynamics and Elite Rhetoric in the Swedish Riksdag

Esther Mary L. Calvo, Hanna Bäck, Royce Carroll
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Abstract

Radical right populist parties have often been treated as “pariahs,” being excluded from coalition politics in parliamentary democracies. We argue that negative rhetoric targeted at radical right populist parties in legislative debates is used by the established parties to distance themselves from such parties and that the incentives to do so depend on the political context. Using sentiment analysis of speeches in the Swedish Riksdag from 2010 to 2022, we find that rhetoric targeted toward the radical right Sweden Democrats is more negative than speech concerning other parties on average. We also find that this negative rhetoric declined over time, particularly from the center-right parties, as the formerly marginal Sweden Democrats gained more seats and became a potential partner for cooperation. Our analysis demonstrates how tracking parliamentary discourse provides insights into changing party dynamics. Our findings suggest that, as the prospects for populists' pariah status change, rhetoric from established parties reflects this shifting role in party politics, with enduring negativity accompanied by reduced hostility among the center-right parties with the greatest potential for cooperation.
辩论民粹主义贱民:瑞典议会中不断变化的政党动态和精英言论
激进右翼民粹主义政党常常被视为 "贱民",被排斥在议会民主制国家的联合政治之外。我们认为,老牌政党在立法辩论中针对激进右翼民粹主义政党的负面言论是为了与这些政党保持距离,而这样做的动机取决于政治环境。通过对 2010 年至 2022 年瑞典议会的发言进行情感分析,我们发现针对激进右翼政党瑞典民主党的言论比针对其他政党的言论更为消极。我们还发现,随着时间的推移,这种负面言论有所减少,尤其是来自中右翼政党的言论,因为以前处于边缘地位的瑞典民主党获得了更多席位,成为了潜在的合作对象。我们的分析表明,跟踪议会言论可以深入了解政党动态的变化。我们的研究结果表明,随着民粹主义者贱民地位的前景发生变化,老牌政党的言论也反映了政党政治中角色的转变,在合作潜力最大的中右翼政党中,持续的负面情绪伴随着敌意的减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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