Bellmunt risk score as a survival predictor in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

Abstract

Background: The prognosis of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is influenced by numerous individual factors. Despite various proposed prognostic models, the clinical application of these remains limited, probably due to complexity. Our study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the Bellmunt risk score, which is well-known for urothelial carcinoma and easily assessed, in mCRPC patients.

Methods: The Bellmunt risk score was calculated from three risk factors (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) ≥1, serum hemoglobin <10 g/dL, presence of liver metastases) in 125 patients who received first-line mCRPC treatment between 2005 and 2023. In addition, a modified score was established (one point each for hemoglobin <10 g/dL and the presence of liver metastases added to the ECOG PS). Associations with overall survival (OS) under first- and second-line therapy were tested using Cox regression analyzes, log-rank tests, concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic.

Results: There is a significant correlation between the level of the Bellmunt risk score and shorter OS (hazard ratio: 3.23, 95% confidence interval: 2.06-5.05; log-rank p < 0.001; C-index: 0.724). The semi-quantitative modified risk score showed even better prognostic discrimination (log-rank p < 0.001, C-index: 0.764). The score and its dynamics were also predictive in the second-line setting (log-rank p < 0.001 and = 0.01; C-index: 0.742 and 0.595).

Conclusions: The Bellmunt risk score is easy to assess and provides useful prognostic information in mCRPC, and can support physicians in their treatment decisions.