{"title":"Heterogeneous expectations in the housing market: a sugarscape agent-based model","authors":"Daehyeon Park, Jengei Hong, Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1007/s10901-024-10116-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the influence of heterogeneous expectations between buyers and sellers on housing market cycles. We propose an agent-based model that integrates houses into a Sugarscape model for analyzing housing market dynamics. Our model incorporates spatial factors into pricing by requiring agents to evaluate a property’s value based on its location. Agents have limited information because they base their decision-making on spatial information. We investigate the impact of agents’ visual range and the heterogeneity of their expectations regarding housing prices. Our simulations with different vision levels show that as agents expand their field of vision, the housing market experiences heightened buying competition, thereby increasing both average housing prices and market volatility. Simulation results with different heterogeneity levels show that when people have more homogeneous expectations, the housing market becomes more volatile. As heterogeneity decreases, the volatility of house prices increases more rapidly, implying that agents’ homogeneous expectations reinforce feedback in the system, leading to higher volatility and more complex dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":47558,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing and the Built Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Housing and the Built Environment","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-024-10116-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study examines the influence of heterogeneous expectations between buyers and sellers on housing market cycles. We propose an agent-based model that integrates houses into a Sugarscape model for analyzing housing market dynamics. Our model incorporates spatial factors into pricing by requiring agents to evaluate a property’s value based on its location. Agents have limited information because they base their decision-making on spatial information. We investigate the impact of agents’ visual range and the heterogeneity of their expectations regarding housing prices. Our simulations with different vision levels show that as agents expand their field of vision, the housing market experiences heightened buying competition, thereby increasing both average housing prices and market volatility. Simulation results with different heterogeneity levels show that when people have more homogeneous expectations, the housing market becomes more volatile. As heterogeneity decreases, the volatility of house prices increases more rapidly, implying that agents’ homogeneous expectations reinforce feedback in the system, leading to higher volatility and more complex dynamics.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Housing and the Built Environment is a scholarly journal presenting the results of scientific research and new developments in policy and practice to a diverse readership of specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. This refereed journal covers the fields of housing, spatial planning, building and urban development. The journal guarantees high scientific quality by a double blind review procedure. Next to that, the editorial board discusses each article as well. Leading scholars in the field of housing, spatial planning and urban development publish regularly in Journal of Housing and the Built Environment. The journal publishes articles from scientists all over the world, both Western and non-Western, providing a truly international platform for developments in both theory and practice in the fields of housing, spatial planning, building and urban development.
Journal of Housing and the Built Environment (HBE) has a wide scope and includes all topics dealing with people-environment relations. Topics concern social relations within the built environment as well as the physicals component of the built environment. As such the journal brings together social science and engineering. HBE is of interest for scientists like housing researchers, social geographers, (urban) planners and architects. Furthermore it presents a forum for practitioners to present their experiences in new developments on policy and practice. Because of its unique structure of research articles and policy and practice contributions, HBE provides a forum where science and practice can be confronted. Finally, each volume of HBE contains one special issue, in which recent developments on one particular topic are discussed in depth.
The aim of Journal of Housing and the Built Environment is to give international exposure to recent research and policy and practice developments on the built environment and thereby open up a forum wherein re searchers can exchange ideas and develop contacts. In this way HBE seeks to enhance the quality of research in the field and disseminate the results to a wider audience. Its scope is intended to interest scientists as well as policy-makers, both in government and in organizations dealing with housing and urban issues.
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