Does Granger causality exist between article usage and publication counts? A topic-level time-series evidence from IEEE Xplore

IF 3.5 3区管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Scientometrics Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI:10.1007/s11192-024-05038-8

Wencan Tian, Yongzhen Wang, Zhigang Hu, Ruonan Cai, Guangyao Zhang, Xianwen Wang

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Abstract

In this study, employing the IEEE Xplore database as the data source, articles on different topics (keywords) and their usage data generated from January 2011 to December 2020 were collected and analyzed. The study examined the temporal relationships between these usage data and publication counts at the topic level via Granger causality analysis. The study found that almost 80% of the topics exhibit significant usage-publication interactions from a time-series perspective, with varying time lag lengths depending on the direction of the Granger causality results. Topics that present bidirectional Granger causality show longer time lag lengths than those exhibiting unidirectional causality. Additionally, the study found that the direction of the unidirectional Granger causality was influenced by the significance of a topic. Topics with a greater preference for article usage as the Granger cause of publication counts were deemed more important. The findings’ reliability was confirmed by varying the maximum lag period. This study provides strong support for using usage data to identify hot topics of research.

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文章使用率与发表数量之间是否存在格兰杰因果关系？来自 IEEE Xplore 的主题级时间序列证据

本研究以 IEEE Xplore 数据库为数据源，收集并分析了 2011 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月期间不同主题（关键词）的文章及其使用数据。研究通过格兰杰因果关系分析，考察了这些使用数据与主题层面的发表数量之间的时间关系。研究发现，从时间序列的角度来看，近 80% 的主题表现出显著的使用-发表互动关系，根据格兰杰因果关系结果的方向不同，时滞长度也不同。呈现双向格兰杰因果关系的主题比呈现单向因果关系的主题显示出更长的时滞长度。此外，研究还发现，单向格兰杰因果关系的方向受主题重要性的影响。更倾向于文章使用量作为发表数量格兰杰因果关系的主题被认为更重要。通过改变最大滞后期，研究结果的可靠性得到了证实。这项研究为利用使用率数据确定研究热点提供了有力支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Scientometrics 管理科学-计算机：跨学科应用

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

17.90%

发文量

351

审稿时长

1.5 months

期刊介绍： Scientometrics aims at publishing original studies, short communications, preliminary reports, review papers, letters to the editor and book reviews on scientometrics. The topics covered are results of research concerned with the quantitative features and characteristics of science. Emphasis is placed on investigations in which the development and mechanism of science are studied by means of (statistical) mathematical methods. The Journal also provides the reader with important up-to-date information about international meetings and events in scientometrics and related fields. Appropriate bibliographic compilations are published as a separate section. Due to its fully interdisciplinary character, Scientometrics is indispensable to research workers and research administrators throughout the world. It provides valuable assistance to librarians and documentalists in central scientific agencies, ministries, research institutes and laboratories. Scientometrics includes the Journal of Research Communication Studies. Consequently its aims and scope cover that of the latter, namely, to bring the results of research investigations together in one place, in such a form that they will be of use not only to the investigators themselves but also to the entrepreneurs and research workers who form the object of these studies.