Developing Time Series Forecasting Models with Generative Large Language Models

IF 7.2 4区 计算机科学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Juan Morales-García, Antonio Llanes, Francisco Arcas-Túnez, Fernando Terroso-Sáenz
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Nowadays, Generative Large Language Models (GLLMs) have made a significant impact in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). One of the domains extensively explored for these models is their ability as generators of functional source code for software projects. Nevertheless, their potential as assistants to write the code needed to generate and model Machine Learning (ML) or Deep Learning (DL) architectures has not been fully explored to date. For this reason, this work focuses on evaluating the extent to which different tools based on GLLMs, such as ChatGPT or Copilot, are able to correctly define the source code necessary to generate viable predictive models. The use case defined is the forecasting of a time series that reports the indoor temperature of a greenhouse. The results indicate that, while it is possible to achieve good accuracy metrics with simple predictive models generated by GLLMs, the composition of predictive models with complex architectures using GLLMs is still far from improving the accuracy of predictive models generated by human data scientists.

利用生成式大型语言模型开发时间序列预测模型
如今,生成式大型语言模型(GLLMs)在人工智能(AI)领域产生了重大影响。这些模型被广泛探索的领域之一是它们作为软件项目功能源代码生成器的能力。然而,迄今为止,它们作为编写生成机器学习(ML)或深度学习(DL)架构所需的代码的助手的潜力尚未得到充分挖掘。因此,这项工作的重点是评估基于 GLLM 的不同工具(如 ChatGPT 或 Copilot)在多大程度上能够正确定义生成可行预测模型所需的源代码。所定义的用例是预测报告温室室内温度的时间序列。结果表明,虽然使用 GLLMs 生成的简单预测模型可以达到很好的准确度指标,但使用 GLLMs 组成具有复杂架构的预测模型仍然远远无法提高人类数据科学家生成的预测模型的准确度。
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来源期刊
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
2.00%
发文量
131
期刊介绍: ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology is a scholarly journal that publishes the highest quality papers on intelligent systems, applicable algorithms and technology with a multi-disciplinary perspective. An intelligent system is one that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to offer important services (e.g., as a component of a larger system) to allow integrated systems to perceive, reason, learn, and act intelligently in the real world. ACM TIST is published quarterly (six issues a year). Each issue has 8-11 regular papers, with around 20 published journal pages or 10,000 words per paper. Additional references, proofs, graphs or detailed experiment results can be submitted as a separate appendix, while excessively lengthy papers will be rejected automatically. Authors can include online-only appendices for additional content of their published papers and are encouraged to share their code and/or data with other readers.
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