{"title":"Missing growth and economic fluctuations: Empirical evidence from Korea","authors":"Sangmin Aum","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104872","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We compute missing growth due to imputation practices in Korea by applying the market share approach of <span>Aghion et al. (2019)</span> and investigate its contribution to the trend and the cyclicality of measurement errors in official inflation and GDP. We find that missing growth is strongly procyclical and that it correlates significantly to an oil shock and a monetary policy shock. The procyclical missing growth, together with the significant correlation with a monetary policy shock, provides additional difficulties in identifying the slope of the Phillips curve from officially measured statistics. Furthermore, missing growth complicates the policy tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization in the face of cost-push shocks, calling for a greater emphasis on inflation stabilization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 104872"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924000642","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We compute missing growth due to imputation practices in Korea by applying the market share approach of Aghion et al. (2019) and investigate its contribution to the trend and the cyclicality of measurement errors in official inflation and GDP. We find that missing growth is strongly procyclical and that it correlates significantly to an oil shock and a monetary policy shock. The procyclical missing growth, together with the significant correlation with a monetary policy shock, provides additional difficulties in identifying the slope of the Phillips curve from officially measured statistics. Furthermore, missing growth complicates the policy tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization in the face of cost-push shocks, calling for a greater emphasis on inflation stabilization.
我们采用 Aghion 等人（2019）的市场份额法计算了韩国因估算方法而导致的增长缺失，并研究了其对官方通胀和 GDP 测量误差的趋势和周期性的贡献。我们发现，缺失增长具有很强的顺周期性，并且与石油冲击和货币政策冲击显著相关。顺周期性的缺失增长，加上与货币政策冲击的显著相关性，给从官方测量的统计数据中识别菲利普斯曲线的斜率带来了更多困难。此外，在面对成本推动的冲击时，缺失的增长使得在稳定通货膨胀和稳定产出之间进行政策权衡变得更加复杂，这就要求更加重视稳定通货膨胀。
期刊介绍：
The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.
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