Regional Specific Features of the Age Structure of the Siberian Population

Abstract

The dynamics of Siberia’s total population and changes in age groups by working capacity are considered. The focus is on a significant reduction in the working-age population and an increase in number in the group older than working age. The dynamics of three types of demographic load coefficients over a 20-year period is analyzed: potential (children), pension, and general. It is shown that since 2000, the coefficients of the potential load on Siberia have increased by 16%, and the pension load, by 23%. Significant territorial disproportions in the coefficients of the total demographic load were revealed, and the difference between the minimum and maximum values in the regional context is 1.5 times. It has been established that the minimum loads are typical of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra (KhMAO-Yugra) and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO) as centers of attraction for the young able-bodied population; the maximum values of the demographic load are recorded in regions with a high proportion of children in the population structure: in the republics of Tyva and Altai, as well as in regions characterized by an aging population, namely, Altai krai, Kemerovo oblast, and Omsk oblast. The problem of the demographic potential of regions is considered with the index of potential demographic load. The maximum excess of the load of children over the load of pensioners (by 67%) was revealed in the Republic of Tyva. The maximum excess of the load of pensioners over the load of children (by 43%) was noted in Altai krai. The influence of regional socioeconomic factors on the formation of the demographic load index is emphasized: the level of fertility and mortality, migration activity, the influx of able-bodied population, and aging of the population.