Expert Elicitation for the Resilient Design and Optimisation of Ultra-long Ore Passes for Deep Mass Mining

Abstract

Extension of ore pass length has become increasingly critical for optimising energy-efficient underground mining operations. Long and ultra-long ore passes, spanning from 300 to 700 m, can significantly improve the functionality and viability of underground mass mining operations though suboptimal performance has an extremely adverse impact on production. The public domain lacks substantial information regarding the primary engineering, geological, and geotechnical risks and challenges associated with the design, implementation, operation, and maintenance of such long ore passes. Therefore, the aggregation of past experiences and the insights of experts assume paramount significance. An innovative methodology is introduced to address this evident data deficiency and to establish comprehensive guidelines for the resilient design of such lengthy ore passes — combining gap analysis with expert elicitation techniques. This equips design engineers with the necessary tools to formulate and adapt strategies for assessing the numerous challenges and uncertainties that invariably accompany their projects. Expert elicitation techniques are summarised, and a gap analysis is conducted with subject matter experts, from various countries, collating their extensive ore pass design experience, to create a comprehensive list of effective parameters and key risks that must be considered. Quantitative analysis of the survey results enabled the identification and ranking of the numerous factors affecting the design, operation, and maintenance of long and ultra-long ore passes and highlights the complex technical challenges (substantial damage from rock particle impact, increased dynamic mining stresses leading to failure, air-blasts and back blasts, dust, preferential flow, turbulent and dynamic material flow) that are uncommon in shorter ore passes. Additionally, increasing length heightens the probability of intersecting weak rock or discontinuities, leading to a higher risk of structural failure and instabilities. Faulting, folding, and large-scale structures are also critical geological factors to be considered in the design of such structures. The key geotechnical factor is also the rock type surrounding the pass. Experts highlighted the lack of clear guidelines for decision-making, resilient design, and construction so this work suggests future investigations to determine the complex interaction between the effective parameters, using approaches like the rock engineering system, discovery of cascading hazards, and optimal controls.