{"title":"Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes","authors":"Kaustav Das, Atisha Ghosh, Pushkar Maitra","doi":"10.1007/s11127-024-01162-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Do voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.</p>","PeriodicalId":48322,"journal":{"name":"Public Choice","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Public Choice","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-024-01162-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Do voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.
期刊介绍：
Public Choice deals with the intersection between economics and political science. The journal was founded at a time when economists and political scientists became interested in the application of essentially economic methods to problems normally dealt with by political scientists. It has always retained strong traces of economic methodology, but new and fruitful techniques have been developed which are not recognizable by economists. Public Choice therefore remains central in its chosen role of introducing the two groups to each other, and allowing them to explain themselves through the medium of its pages.
Officially cited as: Public Choice
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