Re-examining the effect of heat and water stress on agricultural output growth: How is Sub-Saharan Africa different?

Abstract

We examine the impact of climate driven heat and water stress on aggregate crop production growth, paying particular attention to the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region as opposed to studies with a global or Non SSA focus. Using gridded data on temperature and precipitation, which is crop weighted and averaged to the national level, we generate measures of stressors that capture average temperature and precipitation shocks, and extreme punctuated events like dry spells and heat waves for 38 countries in Sub Saharan Africa between 1979 and 2016. We find in general that compared to estimates with a global or non SSA focus, the detrimental effect of increased annual temperature has been overstated, while the damage caused by shorter-term extremes like dry spells and heat waves has been understated. This implies that region specific analysis is key in developing a more comprehensive understanding of climate change. Such analyses are pivotal for climate policy development allowing for more spatially efficient allocation of limited financial resources, and greater accuracy in estimating adaptation effects.