Predicting the current and future suitable distribution range of Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) in China

IF 1.6 3区农林科学 Q2 ENTOMOLOGY

Bulletin of Entomological Research Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI:10.1017/s0007485324000117

Qianqian Qian, Danping Xu, Wenkai Liao, Zhihang Zhuo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Trilocha varians is one of the major pests of Ficus spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of T. varians under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of T. varians were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. varians were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of T. varians is within the range of 92°13′E–122°08′E, 18°17′N–31°55′N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for T. varians predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 104, 21.50 × 104, and 71.95 × 104 km2, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for T. varians increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of T. varians.

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预测Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae)目前和未来在中国的适宜分布范围

基于Worldclim提供的19个生物气候变量，我们的研究利用最大熵算法（MaxEnt）模型分析了在当前和未来两个时期（2050年代和2090年代）气候变化（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）下T. varians的适宜分布区。此外，还确定了影响 T. varians 地理分布的关键环境变量，并比较了当前和未来气候变化下适宜分布区面积的变化。结果表明，影响变叶龙分布的关键环境变量是温度和降水，包括年平均温度（bio1）、温度季节性（标准偏差×100）（bio4）、最干旱月份降水量（bio14）和最干旱季度降水量（bio17）。在目前的气候条件下，变色龙的适宜分布区在东经 92°13′-122°08′、北纬 18°17′-31°55′之间。根据 MaxEnt 模型预测，目前变温动物的高、中、低适宜区面积分别为 14.00 × 104、21.50 × 104 和 71.95 × 104 km2，其中高适宜区主要分布在广东南部、广西西南部、台湾西部、香港和海南。在不同的未来气候条件下，变温动物的高、中、低适宜区有的增加，有的减少，但质量中心没有明显迁移。据预测，珠江流域仍将是 T. varians 的主要分布区。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Bulletin of Entomological Research 生物-昆虫学

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

160

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Established in 1910, the internationally recognised Bulletin of Entomological Research aims to further global knowledge of entomology through the generalisation of research findings rather than providing more entomological exceptions. The Bulletin publishes high quality and original research papers, ''critiques'' and review articles concerning insects or other arthropods of economic importance in agriculture, forestry, stored products, biological control, medicine, animal health and natural resource management. The scope of papers addresses the biology, ecology, behaviour, physiology and systematics of individuals and populations, with a particular emphasis upon the major current and emerging pests of agriculture, horticulture and forestry, and vectors of human and animal diseases. This includes the interactions between species (plants, hosts for parasites, natural enemies and whole communities), novel methodological developments, including molecular biology, in an applied context. The Bulletin does not publish the results of pesticide testing or traditional taxonomic revisions.