Contributions of atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning in the 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent drop

B. Mezzina, H. Goosse, P. Huot, Sylvain Marchi, N. V. van Lipzig
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Abstract

The 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) drop was a rapid decrease that led to persistent low sea ice conditions. The event was triggered by atmospheric anomalies, but the potential preconditioning role of the ocean is unsettled. Here, we use sensitivity experiments with a fully-coupled regional climate model to elucidate the impact of the ocean conditions on the drop and on the persistence of the negative SIE anomalies during 2017. In particular, we re-initialize the model in January 2016 using different ocean and sea ice conditions, keeping lateral boundary forcings in the atmosphere and ocean unchanged. We find that the state of the Southern Ocean in early 2016 does not determine whether the drop occurs or not, but indeed has an impact on its amplitude and regional characteristics. Our results also indicate that the ocean initialization affects the sea ice recovery after the drop in the short term (one year), especially in the Weddell sector. The ocean’s influence appears not to be linked to the ocean surface and sea-ice initialization, but rather to the sub-surface conditions (between 50 m and 150 m) and heat exchange fluctuations at the regional scale, while the atmospheric forcing triggering the drop is driven by the large-scale circulation.
2016 年南极海冰面积下降的大气强迫和海洋先决条件的贡献
2016 年南极海冰面积(SIE)迅速减少,导致持续的低海冰状况。这一事件是由大气异常触发的,但海洋的潜在先决条件作用尚未确定。在此,我们使用完全耦合的区域气候模式进行敏感性实验,以阐明海洋条件对海冰下降和2017年海冰负值异常持续存在的影响。特别是,我们在 2016 年 1 月使用不同的海洋和海冰条件重新初始化模式,保持大气和海洋的横向边界强迫不变。我们发现,2016 年初南大洋的状态并不能决定降水是否发生,但确实会对其幅度和区域特征产生影响。我们的结果还表明,海洋初始化会在短期内(一年)影响海冰下降后的恢复,尤其是在威德尔海区。海洋的影响似乎与海洋表面和海冰初始化无关,而是与区域尺度的次表层条件(50 米至 150 米)和热交换波动有关,而触发海冰下降的大气强迫则是由大尺度环流驱动的。
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