Causal relationships in longitudinal observational data: An integrative modeling approach.

IF 7.6 1区心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Psychological methods Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI:10.1037/met0000648

C. Biazoli, João R. Sato, Michael Pluess

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Abstract

Much research in psychology relies on data from observational studies that traditionally do not allow for causal interpretation. However, a range of approaches in statistics and computational sciences have been developed to infer causality from correlational data. Based on conceptual and theoretical considerations on the integration of interventional and time-restrainment notions of causality, we set out to design and empirically test a new approach to identify potential causal factors in longitudinal correlational data. A principled and representative set of simulations and an illustrative application to identify early-life determinants of cognitive development in a large cohort study are presented. The simulation results illustrate the potential but also the limitations for discovering causal factors in observational data. In the illustrative application, plausible candidates for early-life determinants of cognitive abilities in 5-year-old children were identified. Based on these results, we discuss the possibilities of using exploratory causal discovery in psychological research but also highlight its limits and potential misuses and misinterpretations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

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纵向观察数据中的因果关系：综合建模方法

心理学的许多研究都依赖于观察性研究的数据，这些数据传统上无法进行因果解释。然而，统计学和计算科学领域已经开发出一系列方法，可以从相关数据中推断因果关系。基于对因果关系的干预概念和时间限制概念整合的概念和理论考虑，我们着手设计并实证检验一种新方法，以识别纵向相关数据中的潜在因果因素。本文介绍了一套原则性和代表性的模拟方法，以及在一项大型队列研究中识别生命早期认知发展决定因素的示例应用。模拟结果说明了在观察数据中发现因果因素的潜力和局限性。在示例应用中，我们确定了 5 岁儿童认知能力早期生活决定因素的可信候选因素。基于这些结果，我们讨论了在心理学研究中使用探索性因果发现的可能性，同时也强调了其局限性以及潜在的误用和误读。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Psychological methods PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

7.10%

发文量

159

期刊介绍： Psychological Methods is devoted to the development and dissemination of methods for collecting, analyzing, understanding, and interpreting psychological data. Its purpose is the dissemination of innovations in research design, measurement, methodology, and quantitative and qualitative analysis to the psychological community; its further purpose is to promote effective communication about related substantive and methodological issues. The audience is expected to be diverse and to include those who develop new procedures, those who are responsible for undergraduate and graduate training in design, measurement, and statistics, as well as those who employ those procedures in research.